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STRUCTURAL & MULTIDISCIPLINARY OPTIMIZATION GROUP
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Dr. Haftka
Dr. Kim Mechanical
& Aerospace Engineering University
of Florida |
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Resource
Allocation for Safety Improvements in Transportation Photos
by Greg L [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via
Wikimedia Commons By Ryanandlenny
(Own work) [CC-BY-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)], via
Wikimedia Commons A reliable and safe
transportation system is vital part of improving quality of life for society
and facilitating economic growth. The
U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) estimated the value of all
transportation services of people and goods to be worth over $1.1 trillion,
or 8.6% of the total U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), in 2009 [1]. At the same time, automobile accidents have
been a leading cause of death in the U.S., particularly in people under age
45, with approximately 35,000 people killed each year [2]. Improving and ensuring transportation
safety is a complex problem, as there are many separate agents who work to
contribute to safety. Designers and
manufacturers of vehicles may be able to improve aircraft designs to improve
reliability and survivability in the case of accidents, but this may make
their aircraft more difficult to build or less fuel efficient due to
increased weight. Operators, ranging
from major airlines to private drivers, must practice safety and
responsibility in their habits and ensure that vehicles are properly
maintained. Also, regulators, such as
the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration (NHTSA), may impose laws and guidelines to encourage safety. It is difficult to determine who should be
responsible for improving safety, and there are varying economic incentives
for each of these agents. An additional issue is that
most modes of transportation act as substitutes; individuals may choose one
mode over another based on the tradeoff between cost and travel time. If the
cost of a plane ticket is too high, people may elect to drive their own
car. In terms of moving the same
number of people the same distance, airlines are roughly 240 times safer than
private automobiles. This means that
even if we are able to improve airline safety to a very high level, the
increased cost may result in a net increase in the number of fatalities due
to travelers switching to cheaper, but less safe, travel. In our research, we use game
theory to understand more about transportation safety and how to design
aircraft. Game theory is a tool that has been used by economists to model how
businesses, consumers, and even world powers interact and compete using
strategic decision making. Game theory
considers that each group, or player, will make choices to increase their
expected benefits or profits. For
instance, airplane manufacturers will design the aircraft that is most
profitable, even if it is not the safest or most efficient possible design. Currently, we are studying
real world examples of engineering design problems and airline operations to
determine how to formulate our model; or the “rules” of our game. Once we establish that our model reasonably
reflects the real world, we can see what impact future changes may have on
aircraft design and safety. What if
fuel prices double? What if we discover new materials that can make aircraft
10% lighter and equally strong? What if the FAA enacts new regulations on the
inspections of aircraft? We can simulate a multitude of scenarios and see how
best to ensure the safety of air travelers. [1] Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention. “Causes of Injury Death: Highlighting Unintentional
Injury”. 2009. http://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/leadingcauses.html [2] U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics. “National Transportation Statistics”. 2011. http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/ |