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STRUCTURAL & MULTIDISCIPLINARY OPTIMIZATION GROUP

Dr. Haftka       Dr. Kim       Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering        University of Florida

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Resource Allocation for Safety Improvements in Transportation

Plane_crash_into_Hudson_River_(crop).jpg       Sebring_Sedan_Accident.jpg

Photos by Greg L [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons    By Ryanandlenny (Own work) [CC-BY-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

                A reliable and safe transportation system is vital part of improving quality of life for society and facilitating economic growth.  The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) estimated the value of all transportation services of people and goods to be worth over $1.1 trillion, or 8.6% of the total U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), in 2009 [1].  At the same time, automobile accidents have been a leading cause of death in the U.S., particularly in people under age 45, with approximately 35,000 people killed each year [2].

                Improving and ensuring transportation safety is a complex problem, as there are many separate agents who work to contribute to safety.  Designers and manufacturers of vehicles may be able to improve aircraft designs to improve reliability and survivability in the case of accidents, but this may make their aircraft more difficult to build or less fuel efficient due to increased weight.  Operators, ranging from major airlines to private drivers, must practice safety and responsibility in their habits and ensure that vehicles are properly maintained.  Also, regulators, such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), may impose laws and guidelines to encourage safety.  It is difficult to determine who should be responsible for improving safety, and there are varying economic incentives for each of these agents.

                An additional issue is that most modes of transportation act as substitutes; individuals may choose one mode over another based on the tradeoff between cost and travel time. If the cost of a plane ticket is too high, people may elect to drive their own car.  In terms of moving the same number of people the same distance, airlines are roughly 240 times safer than private automobiles.  This means that even if we are able to improve airline safety to a very high level, the increased cost may result in a net increase in the number of fatalities due to travelers switching to cheaper, but less safe, travel.

                In our research, we use game theory to understand more about transportation safety and how to design aircraft. Game theory is a tool that has been used by economists to model how businesses, consumers, and even world powers interact and compete using strategic decision making.  Game theory considers that each group, or player, will make choices to increase their expected benefits or profits.  For instance, airplane manufacturers will design the aircraft that is most profitable, even if it is not the safest or most efficient possible design.

                Currently, we are studying real world examples of engineering design problems and airline operations to determine how to formulate our model; or the “rules” of our game.  Once we establish that our model reasonably reflects the real world, we can see what impact future changes may have on aircraft design and safety.  What if fuel prices double? What if we discover new materials that can make aircraft 10% lighter and equally strong? What if the FAA enacts new regulations on the inspections of aircraft? We can simulate a multitude of scenarios and see how best to ensure the safety of air travelers.

 

[1] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “Causes of Injury Death: Highlighting Unintentional Injury”. 2009. http://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/leadingcauses.html

 

[2] U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics. “National Transportation Statistics”. 2011. http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/